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Trung Quốc “khuấy động” chia rẽ ở Philippines về kế hoạch mua tên lửa Mỹ Typhon

Hệ thống phóng tên lửa mặt đất tầm trung (MRC) Typhon, do tập đoàn Lockheed Martin phát triển, đã được Mỹ đưa đến Philippines từ tháng 09/2024 để tham gia cuộc tập trận chung song phương. Washington « chưa có kế hoạch rút » hệ thống tên lửa này về, vì « vẫn cần để huấn luyện và nâng cao năng lực của quân đội », theo cố vấn an ninh quốc gia Philippines Eduardo Ano. Gần đây, Manila cho biết « thực sự có kế hoạch sở hữu hệ thống này » để « tăng cường khả năng răn đe ». Nếu hệ thống Typhon được triển khai ở Philippines, nhiều mục tiêu trên lãnh thổ Trung Quốc cũng sẽ nằm trong tầm bắn.

Theo một số nhà phân tích, hành động này của Philippines còn nhằm « xoa dịu » tổng thống sắp tới của Mỹ Donald Trump, vẫn muốn các đồng minh tăng chi tiêu quốc phòng và đóng góp trực tiếp nhiều hơn vào việc duy trì trật tự an ninh quốc tế do Mỹ lãnh đạo.

Tuy nhiên, đối với Bắc Kinh, quyết định của Manila sẽ làm gia tăng căng thẳng trong vùng. Người phát ngôn bộ Ngoại Giao Trung Quốc, Lâm Kiếm (Lin Jian), nhắc đến « hòa bình và thịnh vượng » của khu vực để kêu gọi Manila cân nhắc lại quyết định. Nhưng họ để giới chuyên gia và truyền thông Trung Quốc chỉ trích mạnh mẽ, cáo buộc Philippines đang « trên đường trở thành kẻ gây rối thực sự ở Biển Đông », theo Hoàn cầu Thời báo. Còn đối với một số chuyên gia an ninh hàng đầu của Trung Quốc, Philippines « mua bất kỳ loại vũ khí nào thì cũng vô ích và vô nghĩa » và Philippines chỉ « đóng vai nạn nhân », dựa vào hệ thống vũ khí của Mỹ.

Gabriel Honrada, tác giả một bài phân tích trên trang Asia Times ngày 28/11, nhận định Trung Quốc đang tìm cách khai thác thế yếu của Philippines trong mạng lưới liên minh của Mỹ ở Ấn Độ-Thái Bình Dương, để buộc nước này từ bỏ ý định mua loại vũ khí hiện đại. Thứ nhất, liên quan đến vị thế của chính quyền Philippines, thường được ủng hộ chính trị mạnh mẽ ở cấp vùng nhưng lại ít được ủng hộ ở cấp quốc gia, do cạnh tranh chính trị giữa các đảng, đặc biệt là giữa hai gia tộc đang nổi hiện : tổng thống đương nhiệm thuộc gia tộc Marcos và phó tổng thống thuộc dòng họ Duterte.

Mối quan hệ giữa hai dòng họ từng giúp liên minh chiến thắng vẻ vang trong cuộc bầu cử tổng thống nhưng giờ gần như bên bờ tan vỡ sau những cáo buộc tổng thống Marcos phản bội vì cho mở điều tra tham nhũng nhắm vào gia đình Duterte. Đấu đá và rạn nứt lên cao trào khi phó tổng thống Sara Duterte khẳng định đã bố trí sát thủ « đi giết ông Marcos, (đệ nhất phu nhân) Liza Araneta (chủ tịch Hạ Viện) Martin Romualdez », họ hàng với tổng thống Marcos, nếu bà bị ám sát.

Nhà nghiên cứu Richard Heydarian nhận định với Asia Times rằng « những bất hòa chính trị giữa tổng thống Marcos Jr. và phó tổng thống Sara Duterte đã đặt Trung Quốc vào tâm điểm », vì trong mỗi sự kiện, mỗi ý đồ làm suy yếu tổng thống đương nhiệm dường như đều có « yếu tố Trung Quốc ». Ông nhắc lại là hồi tháng 4, tổng thống Marcos Jr. cáo buộc người tiền nhiệm Rodrigo Duterte « thỏa thuận ngầm » với Trung Quốc về vấn đề Biển Đông. Trong suốt nhiệm kỳ tổng thống, ông Duterte vẫn không che giấu ý định xích lại gần với Bắc Kinh, gác tranh chấp chủ quyền ở Biển Đông để thắt chặt hợp tác kinh tế với Trung Quốc.

Bảo đảm kinh tế đất nước là một yếu tố giúp chế độ ổn định. Trong khi hầu hết các chế độ Đông Nam Á củng cố và duy trì tính hợp pháp thông qua tăng trưởng kinh tế, giới lãnh đạo chính trị Philippines thường không làm được điều đó, khiến đất nước tụt hậu so với các nước láng giềng Thái Lan, Việt Nam, Malaysia, Indonesia. Giới lãnh đạo Philippines đã phải dựa vào các thế lực bên ngoài. Ví dụ đối với tổng thống Duterte, Trung Quốc là đối tác số một. Nhưng từ khi ông Marcos Jr. nhậm chức, Philippines lại ngả sang Hoa Kỳ, đồng minh từ thời chiến tranh lạnh.

Những tranh cãi, căng thẳng nội bộ hiện nay có lẽ không có lợi cho chính quyền của tổng thống Marcos Jr. dù ông bị dọa giết. Ngày 29/11, ông Marcos cho rằng mọi lời kêu gọi phế truất phó tổng thống sẽ chỉ làm Quốc Hội phân tán. Ông kêu gọi ưu tiên lợi ích công hơn là những tư lợi chính trị và như vậy mới tiếp tục được người dân ủng hộ những dự án quốc phòng lớn để đối phó với Trung Quốc.

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