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“Miếng bánh ngân sách” và lựa chọn của nước Mỹ: Dân nghèo đang chờ đợi điều gì?

Hoàng Việt

Cuộc bầu cử năm 2024 đánh dấu một chiến thắng lớn của Donald Trump với sự ủng hộ đáng kể từ tầng lớp lao động và người nghèo. Nhưng bây giờ, khi ông chuẩn bị thực thi chính sách giảm thuế cho tầng lớp giàu có, một câu hỏi lớn được đặt ra: liệu những người nghèo đã bầu cho ông có phải trả giá cho chính quyết định của mình?

“Miếng bánh ngân sách” không thể vô tận

Ngân sách quốc gia giống như một chiếc bánh có kích thước cố định. Nếu một phần lớn hơn được chia cho những người giàu thông qua các gói giảm thuế trị giá hàng ngàn tỷ USD, phần còn lại sẽ ít hơn cho các chương trình phúc lợi dành cho người nghèo. Điều này không phải là suy đoán mà là một thực tế kinh tế cơ bản.

  • Giảm thuế cho tỷ phú: Chính quyền Trump đang thúc đẩy gói giảm thuế trị giá 2.000 tỷ USD, chủ yếu mang lại lợi ích cho tầng lớp giàu có và các tập đoàn lớn.
  • Cắt giảm phúc lợi: Để bù đắp nguồn thu ngân sách bị giảm, chính phủ phải cắt giảm các chương trình như tem thực phẩm, trợ cấp nhà ở, bảo hiểm y tế (Medicaid), và các khoản trợ cấp khác cho tầng lớp nghèo.

Sự hồi hộp của tầng lớp nghèo

Những người nghèo đã bầu cho Trump đang đặt câu hỏi liệu chính sách của ông có thực sự phục vụ lợi ích của họ. Trong nhiều trường hợp, họ ủng hộ ông vì những lời hứa hẹn về việc làm, sự phục hồi kinh tế, và tinh thần “nước Mỹ trên hết.” Tuy nhiên, những chính sách kinh tế thực tế lại có thể tác động ngược:

  • Nguy cơ mất phúc lợi: Những cắt giảm ngân sách thường nhắm vào các chương trình xã hội, điều này có thể ảnh hưởng trực tiếp đến cuộc sống của những người nghèo vốn phụ thuộc vào các khoản trợ cấp này.
  • Bất bình đẳng gia tăng: Khi người giàu được hưởng lợi từ giảm thuế mà không có sự đầu tư đồng đều vào tầng lớp trung lưu và nghèo, khoảng cách giàu nghèo sẽ tiếp tục mở rộng.

Lý do người nghèo vẫn bầu cho Trump

  • Niềm tin vào lời hứa: Trump hứa hẹn sẽ mang lại việc làm và phục hồi ngành công nghiệp ở các khu vực lao động, điều này tạo ra sự kỳ vọng lớn trong tầng lớp lao động và nghèo.
  • Bất mãn với chính trị truyền thống: Nhiều người cảm thấy các chính sách của Đảng Dân chủ không mang lại thay đổi thực sự, và họ chọn Trump như một “người ngoài cuộc” có thể phá vỡ hệ thống cũ.
  • Những vấn đề văn hóa: Trump khai thác thành công các vấn đề văn hóa như nhập cư, chính sách đối ngoại, và bảo vệ “giá trị Mỹ,” khiến tầng lớp lao động cảm thấy ông đại diện cho lợi ích của họ.

Hệ quả và bài học

  • Ai được, ai mất? Người giàu rõ ràng sẽ là người hưởng lợi lớn từ các chính sách giảm thuế, trong khi người nghèo có nguy cơ mất nhiều hơn qua việc cắt giảm trợ cấp.
  • Nền kinh tế bất bình đẳng hơn: Chính sách này có thể làm tăng bất bình đẳng kinh tế, tạo ra một xã hội nơi cơ hội dành cho người giàu nhiều hơn trong khi người nghèo tiếp tục chật vật để tồn tại.
  • Bài học cho cử tri: Lựa chọn bầu cử không chỉ nên dựa trên lời hứa hẹn mà cần phải xem xét chính sách thực tế và các tác động lâu dài.

Chờ đợi và hy vọng

Dân nghèo đã bầu cho Trump vì họ kỳ vọng một sự thay đổi tích cực. Nhưng thực tế là “miếng bánh ngân sách” có hạn, và nếu phần lớn chiếc bánh được chia cho tầng lớp giàu có, thì phần dành cho họ chắc chắn sẽ ít đi. Để bảo vệ lợi ích của mình, tầng lớp lao động và nghèo cần phải giám sát chặt chẽ chính sách của chính phủ và lên tiếng khi quyền lợi của họ bị xâm phạm.

Câu hỏi lớn là liệu những lời hứa của Trump có chuyển thành hành động thực tế, hay sẽ chỉ là một giấc mơ tan biến trong sự khắc nghiệt của chính trị và kinh tế Mỹ.

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